Hurricane Forecast Calls For Another Stormy Season

The forecast released recently for the 2005 hurricane season calls for bad news and maybe even worse.
The bad news is the season is expected to be at least as active as in 2004, which saw four hurricanes in Florida. The worse news is this active trend is expected to remain in the next few years.
Forecasters predict 13 named storms and seven hurricanes in the 2005 season, which begins today and continues through Nov. 30. There's also a 73 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall somewhere in the United States, according to the forecast.
Dr. William Gray, the renowned Colorado State University meteorologist, says this is part of a 25-year cycle of active hurricane seasons, which began in 1995.
"We're in the middle of this big, long, lasting cycle in the Atlantic, and this is something we're going to have to contend with for a long time," said Steve Letro, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Jacksonville. "So there's no reason to believe it's not going to be active again, as far as numbers of hurricanes.
"The question is where these storms will go, and that we just don't know."
The 2004 season, one of the top three on record, produced 15 storms and nine hurricanes, including four that hit the state in a span of six weeks, causing $22 billion of damage and 116 deaths in Florida alone. Only 1950 and 1995 rival 2004 as the most active hurricane seasons on record.
"Who would ever have envisioned a hurricane season when you would have said 90 percent of Florida would have been affected by hurricanes, and Miami and the Keys were the two areas that weren't affected," said Harvey Campbell, Columbia County Emergency Management public information officer. "That would have been the long shot almost like the horse that won the Kentucky Derby.
"It's important for us to have learned, not only from what happened here, but also from what happened in some communities that were hit harder and learn what they have learned."
This year, emergency management will have its own radio station at 530 AM, with a range of 8 to 10 miles. It was scheduled to be on the air by today.
During the 2005 hurricane season, for the first time, inland hurricane watches and warnings will be issued, something the National Weather Service in Jacksonville has wanted for years, Letro said.
Once again, experts at the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service are urging people to not focus exclusively on the black line studded with dots used to project paths of storms. This caused considerable confusion when Hurricane Charley slammed into Port Charlotte on that Friday the 13th in September instead of 90 miles north at Tampa Bay, where the black line suggested.
The hurricane center considered eliminating the black line, but decided to keep it after surveying the public, media and emergency workers.
One new development will be an experimental graphic that shows the probability of hurricane and tropical storm force winds over inland regions like Columbia and Suwannee counties.
Officials are also still trying to get the word out statewide for residents to consider the "cone of uncertainty," the margin of error cone around the black line," Letro said.
"People need to pay attention to the warnings that are given, not just to where the skinny line says the hurricane is going to go," he said.
"A hurricane is a big thing, and as we saw last year, there could be significant impact far removed from the center. We also saw last year how just a small change in course can have a huge impact on the damage that will occur in a given location."
If there is a positive side to getting hit like Florida did by hurricanes in 2004, it's that hopefully no one will be caught sleeping this year, Letro said.
"There's no question last year's hurricanes got everybody's attention," Letro said. "We hope that translates into a higher preparedness level for the upcoming season.
"Up until last year, we had trouble convincing people in inland areas that a hurricane can seriously affect you. People in Orlando don't think that anymore.
"Under the right circumstances, Lake City could easily be like Orlando was last year."